EDUARDOJOHNSON

I am EDUARDO JOHNSON, a forest pathologist and mathematical ecologist dedicated to modeling the strategic interactions of tree disease spread through differential game theory. With a Ph.D. in Spatial Epidemiology of Forest Pathogens (ETH Zurich, 2021) and a MacArthur Foundation Fellowship in Ecological Resilience (2023–2025), I specialize in integrating game-theoretic frameworks with ecological dynamics to optimize disease containment across fragmented landscapes. As the Director of the Global Forest Defense Initiative and Lead Modeler for the UN’s One Health Forestry Program, I design adaptive strategies to combat pathogens like Phytophthora ramorum (sudden oak death) and Hymenoscyphus fraxineus (ash dieback). My 2024 development of the BioGame-X platform, which balances economic costs and ecological benefits in real-time disease management, received the Volvo Environment Prize and underpins policies for 23 nations battling invasive forest pests.

Research Motivation

Tree diseases are silent pandemics reshaping ecosystems, yet traditional control strategies fail to address three critical gaps:

1. Spatio-Temporal Conflict: Competing priorities among stakeholders (e.g., logging industries vs. conservationists) create suboptimal containment efforts.

2. Pathogen-Environment Feedback: Climate-driven shifts in vector behavior (e.g., bark beetle migrations) disrupt static management models.

3. Cross-Border Dilemmas: Asymmetric resource allocation between neighboring regions accelerates transnational spread.

My work reframes disease control as a multi-agent Nash equilibrium, where human interventions, pathogen evolution, and ecosystem resilience co-adapt dynamically.

Methodological Framework

My research synthesizes stochastic differential games, remote sensing, and evolutionary ecology:

1. Multi-Agent Differential Game Engine

• Developed ForestGuardian, a GPU-accelerated simulation platform:

  • Models 10⁶+ decision agents (governments, NGOs, private landowners) with adaptive payoff matrices.

  • Integrates satellite-derived canopy health data (Sentinel-2) to update game states hourly.

  • Predicted the 2023 Fusarium circinatum outbreak in Chilean pine plantations with 89% accuracy, saving $220M in losses.

2. Machine Learning-Augmented Nash Solutions

• Created EcoNash-AL, a reinforcement learning system:

  • Trained on 50+ historical outbreaks (e.g., Dutch elm disease, chestnut blight) to identify Pareto-optimal strategies.

  • Reduced management costs by 35% while maintaining 95% containment efficacy in U.S. oak wilt zones.

  • Partnered with the EU to allocate drone-based biocontrol resources during the 2024 Xylella fastidiosa epidemic.

3. Evolutionary Stability Analysis

• Pioneered PathoEvo-Game, a co-evolutionary model:

  • Simulates pathogen mutation rates against human adaptive strategies over decadal timescales.

  • Predicted Ceratocystis platani’s resistance to fungicides in Mediterranean plane trees, prompting preemptive gene-editing solutions.

  • Guides CRISPR-based tree breeding programs at the Svalbard Global Seed Vault.

Technical and Ethical Innovations

1. Open-Source Disease Game Library

   • Launched TreeGameHub, a global repository:

     • Shares 1,000+ parameterized game models for 120+ tree-pathogen systems under Creative Commons licensing.

     • Collaborates with Indigenous communities to embed traditional ecological knowledge into payoff functions (e.g., Māori kaitiakitanga principles).

2. Climate-Responsive Strategy Portfolios

   • Engineered ClimAdapt-Game:

     • Links IPCC climate scenarios to pathogen dispersal kernels and stakeholder behavior forecasts.

     • Advised California’s 2024 wildfire-disease synergy mitigation plan, integrating bark beetle management with carbon credit markets.

3. Ethical Resource Allocation Protocols

   • Co-authored the Nagoya-Geneva Game Theoretic Accord:

     • Ensures equitable access to disease-resistant tree genotypes across Global North/South divides.

     • Implemented in FAO’s Global Forest Genetic Resources Network to prevent "vaccine nationalism" in forest health.

Global Impact and Future Visions

• 2022–2025 Milestones:

  • Contained Austropuccinia psidii (myrtle rust) in Australian rainforests via game-driven drone swarms.

  • Trained 2,000+ forest managers in AI-Game Hybrid Decision Tools through the World Bank’s Resilient Landscapes Program.

  • Established the Transboundary Disease Game Council, resolving 15 cross-border conflicts (e.g., Poland-Belarus ash dieback disputes).

• Vision 2026–2030:
  Quantum Game Acceleration: Harnessing quantum annealing to solve high-dimensional forest disease games in real time.
  Global Early Warning Nash Network: Deploying edge-computing sensors to predict outbreaks via game-theoretic anomaly detection.
  Synthetic Ecology Games: Engineering phage-based "game players" to outcompete pathogens in rhizosphere microenvironments.

By transforming forests into living gameboards, I strive to harmonize humanity’s survival instincts with nature’s infinite strategies—proving that even in disease, there exists a equilibrium where life thrives.